Working Papers

Promotions in Law Enforcement: Financial Outcomes and Household Labor Supply Responses

with Christian Posso
Job Market Paper

Promotion and compensation policies are essential for attracting, retaining, and incentivizing public-sector workers. Typically, promoted employees receive significant pay raises as they assume greater responsibilities. This paper leverages novel micro-level data and quasi-experimental variation to study how credit utilization and household labor supply respond to earnings increases resulting from promotions. We exploit the sharp discontinuity in the allocation of promotions among early-career police officers in Colombia to compare the outcomes of nearly identical individuals. We find that four years after being promoted, officers' debt reaches nearly 170 percent of their annual earnings premium. Most of this response is caused by officers investing in housing and taking out personal loans. Moreover, household data reveals a significant reduction in wives' employment after their police husbands receive a promotion. This effect is more pronounced among couples with young children, but not explained by changes in fertility decisions. These findings suggest that households adjust their time and consumption allocation in response to a permanent pay increase.

Signaling Specific Skills and the Labor Market of College Graduates [Draft]

with Matias Busso and Juan Muñoz
Revision requested at The Review of Economics and Statistics

IZA WP

We study how signaling skills that are specific to college majors affect labor market outcomes of college graduates. We rely on census-like data and a regression discontinuity design to study the impacts of a well-known award given to top performers on a mandatory nationwide exam in Colombia. The award allows students to signal their high level of specific skills when searching for a job. These students earn 7 to 12 percent more than otherwise identical students lacking the signal. This positive return persists five years after graduation. The signal mostly benefits workers who graduate from low-reputation colleges, and allows workers to find jobs in more productive firms and in sectors that better use their skills. We rule out that the positive earnings returns are explained by human capital. The signal favors mostly less advantaged groups, implying that reducing information frictions about students' skills could potentially shrink earnings gaps. Our results imply that information policies like those that formally certify skills can improve the efficiency in talent allocation of the economy and, at the same time, level the playing field.

Beyond the Bennett Hypothesis: Financial Aid, College Quality, and Education Expansion [Draft]

with Alejandra Montoya

This paper investigates the impact of college financial aid on tuition prices and explores how colleges allocate additional revenues. We leverage exogenous variation from a large-scale aid program in Colombia, where loan recipients can only enroll at high-quality colleges. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and data for all colleges in the country, we find that tuition increased by about 5.8 percent after the government launched the aid policy. We present evidence that colleges likely face capacity constraints in the short term, as they cannot entirely expand to meet the upward shift in demand caused by the aid program. We also study how colleges respond in the medium run to the increase in revenues. Our findings indicate that colleges maintain their focus on education quality, as evidenced by a constant student-to-faculty ratio amidst a growing student body. This is achieved by hiring additional faculty, including individuals holding doctoral degrees. Finally, we show that colleges expand their supply by creating new undergraduate programs and hiring new personnel.


Publications

The Unintended Consequences of Merit-based Teacher Selection: Evidence from a Large-Scale Reform in Colombia [Draft]

with Matias Busso, Juan Muñoz, and Nolan Pope
Journal of Public Economics, November 2024, 239:105238 [Publisher's Version]

Teacher quality is a key factor in improving student academic achievement. As such, educational policymakers strive to design systems to hire the most effective teachers. This paper examines the effects of a national policy reform in Colombia that established a merit-based teacher-hiring system intended to enhance teacher quality and improve student learning. Implemented in 2005 for all public schools, the policy ties teacher-hiring decisions to candidates' performance on an exam evaluating subject-specific knowledge and teaching aptitude. We find that though the policy sharply increased pre-college test scores of teachers, it also decreased the overall stock of teacher experience and led to sharp decreases in students' exam performance and educational attainment. Using a difference-in-differences strategy to compare the outcomes of students from public and private schools over two decades, we show that the hiring reform decreased students' performance on high school exit exams by 8 percent of a standard deviation, and reduced the likelihood that students enroll in and graduate from college by more than 10 percent. The results underscore that relying exclusively on specific ex ante measures of teacher quality to screen candidates may unintentionally reduce students' learning gains.

Unbundling Returns to Postsecondary Degrees and Skills: Evidence from Colombia [Draft]

with Matias Busso and Juan Muñoz
Forthcoming at Education Economics [Publisher's Version]

IZA WP

Using longitudinal data of college graduates in Colombia, we estimate labor market returns to postsecondary degrees and to various skills, including literacy, numeracy, foreign language, and field-specific skills. Graduates of academic programs and schools of higher reputation obtain higher earnings relative to vocational public programs. A one standard deviation increase in each skill predicts average earnings increases of one to three percent. Returns vary along the earnings distribution, with tenure, with the degree of job specialization, and by gender. Our results imply that degrees and skills capture different human capital components that are rewarded differently in the labor market.


Work in Progress

Flexibility and College Success: Evidence from a Reform at a Flagship University

College graduation rates vary significantly depending on the institution where students enroll. While financial constraints and pre-enrollment preparation have received significant attention in the literature, supply-side factors could also explain the heterogeneous graduation rates across schools. Leveraging variation from a reform at a large university in Colombia and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, I show how the structure of academic programs can affect student success in college. The reform increased the flexibility of academic plans that students can follow to obtain a degree. I find that students who enroll after the reform was implemented are 4 percentage points more likely to drop out within two years. Moreover, students are also 8.1 percentage points less likely to graduate within six years. These effects cannot be explained by pre-college test scores, family income, or other demographic characteristics of students. Given that the student-teacher ratio remained unaffected by the reform, changes in college resources are also unlikely to drive the effects.

Give Teachers a Break? Teacher Preparation Period and Student Outcomes

with Nathan Petek, Nolan Pope, and George Zuo

Abstract coming soon!